Monday NJ weather: One day of widespread summerlike warmth

The Bottom Line

The calendar says late April. But Mother Nature is about to give New Jersey a taste of weather typical of late June. It is a one-day warmup, soaring into the 80s across most of the state. And yes, someone in New Jersey could hit 90 degrees Monday, for the first time in 2024.

However, starting Monday afternoon, a backdoor cold front will introduce a southeasterly breeze. An on-shore breeze. Blowing off the chilly 53-degree ocean. And that will cause big changes for Tuesday and beyond, as clouds, rain chances, and cooler temperatures enter the forecast.

Having said that, there will be some nice weather days coming up late-week.

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Monday

Very warm, and even a touch humid.

Temperatures on Monday will run about 15 degrees above normal for late April, reaching the lower to mid 80s across most of the state. Even coastal communities will be nice and warm for the first part of the day, before an on-shore breeze drags temperatures downward.

For the record, the record high temperatures for this date are 91 at EWR (Elizabeth), 88 at TTN (Ewing), and 92 at ACY (Egg Harbor Township). Grab the t-shirt and shorts. And you might consider flipping on the air conditioner.

The day is starting near 60 degrees, with some lingering mist and fog around. Sunshine should win out by late morning.

The chance of rain is not zero Monday, but it is pretty low. The best chance of a popup shower or thunderstorm will be in the hour or two just before sunset. And the most likely location of such isolated raindrops would be northeastern New Jersey, between about Bergen and Monmouth counties.

For the rest of Monday night, fog is a good possibility, especially along the coast. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies and comfortable temperatures. Lows will bottom out around the upper 50s.

Tuesday

Changes are ahead, as a result of late Monday's backdoor front. That will cause a dramatic cooldown for most of the state Tuesday. But not necessarily for everyone yet.

Expect a mix of clouds and some sun on Tuesday. A light breeze will blow from the east, from the ocean.

High temperatures to the north and east will crash to the mid-upper 60s on Tuesday. Meanwhile, along the I-295 corridor in SW NJ, another day of 80s looks likely.

That's a big temperature difference, of course. And exactly where the dividing line between "warm" and "not" ends up is impossible to pinpoint. The forecast is especially tricky for places "in between" like Trenton (probably on the warm side, barely) and Atlantic City (probably on the cool side, barely).

As a storm system passes through Tuesday evening, we will probably see some showers and thunderstorms develop over New Jersey. This storm produced some dramatic severe weather over the midsection of the country this weekend. But it will lose a lot of its "oomph" before reaching us.

Wednesday

May begins with spotty showers continuing through Wednesday morning. The rest of the day will be mostly cloudy and calm.

Temperatures will start to even out on Wednesday. I am saying highs will end up "around 70 degrees". But realistically, that would be mid 60s to the north and east, but mid 70s in the warm sector of inland South Jersey.

Thursday & Friday

I think we will squeeze out a couple of pleasant Spring days to close out the workweek. Thursday looks particularly nice, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures around 70 to 75 degrees. That is just above normal for early May.

Temperatures will be similar on Friday, with slightly more cloudy cover and a slightly more prominent breeze. Both days are trending dry for now.

The Extended Forecast

One persistent theme throughout this week is moderate humidity — it really will not be zapped from our atmosphere until early next week.

With that in mind, it should not be a surprise that we will have more nebulous "unsettled weather" to talk about. And unfortunately, it may very well coincide with the weekend.

There is no real consensus among forecast models at this point regarding the timing and extent of rain on Saturday vs. Sunday. You will have a reasonable chance of getting wet on either day. High temperatures will probably be limited to the seasonable 60s for most.

One more shot of rain on Monday will be followed by a change in air mass. Drier, cooler weather looks to prevail for most of next week.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.